Its only money ????

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JPG
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by JPG »

Ohh yes. Limit supply and demand/prices will rise.

Are timber prices also escalating? Surplus says no.

Sounds like gouging.

After all those folks call a 1 1/2" x 3 1/2" stick a 2 by 4!
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Goldie(Bought New SN 377425)/4" jointer/6" beltsander/12" planer/stripsander/bandsaw/powerstation /Scroll saw/Jig saw /Craftsman 10" ras/Craftsman 6" thicknessplaner/ Dayton10"tablesaw(restoredfromneighborstrashpile)/ Mark VII restoration in 'progress'/ 10
E[/size](SN E3779) restoration in progress, a 510 on the back burner and a growing pile of items to be eventually returned to useful life. - aka Red Grange
RFGuy
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by RFGuy »

Ed in Tampa wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:43 am
Dusty
Something must be wrong. Here in Florida the majority of houses are built from concrete block and stucco. Properly insulated and with correct AC sizing these homes constantly beat similar stick built homes built with normal insulation. The “experts” claim the mass of the concrete blocks provide thermal buffering that the wood cannot.
Ed,

There are a good number of concrete block and stucco houses here in AZ as well. It depends on when the house was built. Newer construction has tended to be stick built because of lower cost (at the time), but prior to this many, many homes built here have been block wall construction. My house was built in '85 and the entire downstairs is concrete block, but they transitioned to stick framing on 2nd floor. I also like the thermal advantages offered by block wall construction...not to mention they are more termite resistant. Also might be an advantage over stick built if you live in an area with lots of hurricanes.
Last edited by RFGuy on Mon May 10, 2021 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
📶RF Guy

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dusty
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by dusty »

JPG wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:51 am Ohh yes. Limit supply and demand/prices will rise.

Are timber prices also escalating? Surplus says no.

Sounds like gouging.

After all those folks call a 1 1/2" x 3 1/2" stick a 2 by 4!
All true BUT in the beginning a 2"x4" was measured rough cut.

With regard to surplus - where is the surplus timber located?
"Making Sawdust Safely"
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JPG
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by JPG »

A 2x4 is only 2"x4" when still in a log.

Subtract saw kerf, planing waste and shrinkage and it comes out 3/8" smaller. Then a while back something caused them to shrink another 1/8".

I would think using band saws today would cause them to be bigger????
╔═══╗
╟JPG ╢
╚═══╝

Goldie(Bought New SN 377425)/4" jointer/6" beltsander/12" planer/stripsander/bandsaw/powerstation /Scroll saw/Jig saw /Craftsman 10" ras/Craftsman 6" thicknessplaner/ Dayton10"tablesaw(restoredfromneighborstrashpile)/ Mark VII restoration in 'progress'/ 10
E[/size](SN E3779) restoration in progress, a 510 on the back burner and a growing pile of items to be eventually returned to useful life. - aka Red Grange
Hobbyman2
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by Hobbyman2 »

JPG wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:45 am A 2x4 is only 2"x4" when still in a log.

Subtract saw kerf, planing waste and shrinkage and it comes out 3/8" smaller. Then a while back something caused them to shrink another 1/8".

I would think using band saws today would cause them to be bigger????
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when I can I buy directly form a local mill and then I usually buy the entire tree or log , even the slab wood or waste for fire wood, unless I only need a couple boards I don't shop the big box or lumber yards , if I order 2x4's they usually come in at 2 1/8 x 4 1/8 , after drying and plaining I can usually get any where between 1 7/8 - 2" to 3 7/8 - 4" depending if I need good on both sides . I can request any size I need . If I want a finished board to come out to exactly 2x4 I can make it happen rather easily , thats not a option at the big box ,, {my American} , imperial bits and blades , marking and set up gages all seem to work out much easier . not saying I couldn't reinvest in all new metric gages and rulers .however JMO ,, to me that sounds rather boring and not too thrifty , if I want to make a 3/4 rabbit for a 3/4 board my imperial blades and router bits are ready to go , If I buy the big box store lumber I have to buy over size " {all ready }"finished boards and still work it down so the bits and blades work out or buy new bits and blades . it all comes down to cost per bd ft and using the waste . for some this may not be a option however my guess is for most there is a public or private mill not far away . JMO
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DLB
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by DLB »

It's a pretty shallow analysis that blames rising housing prices on rising lumber prices IMO. Statistics show that both prices and volume for new homes are up, suggesting that both are driven by demand. High demand on housing volume means high demand on materials, many of which are increasing in price as the supply chain works to meet the new demand. (I'm told that labor is also an issue, at least locally, and has as much to do with the high prices as lumber.)

This data shows a strong increase in sales volume following an anomalous negative spike in Mar 2020, attributable no doubt to the pandemic:
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs ... ssales.pdf
I would say it shows sales over the last year roughly 20% above what one might have projected based on the pre-2020 trend. Most importantly, this very high demand is at prices that presumably include high priced lumber and other materials.

This data was a surprise to me. I had been informed by other sources that the "hot housing market" was driven primarily by low volume. Meaning demand exceeding supply due to low supply rather than high demand. I no longer think this is the case. Both new and existing sales volumes are very high nationwide. Demand is high, driving prices up. Economics 101.

So I'd conclude that the NAHB is not necessarily a neutral news source. I'm sure they'd love to see even higher demand for houses that might result if they could hold the line on price. But if there was a NAYPPD (Nat'l Assoc. of Yellow Pine Producers and Distributors) I suspect they'd blame the suddenly higher than expected demand of the housing market for the shortage and prices. That is certainly my conclusion. I freely admit that I can't explain the higher than anticipated demand on new housing, but I think it is the important question.

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Re: Its only money ????

Post by Hobbyman2 »

Good point , we hear many opinions , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-J3ahFzqnqo , maybe these folks seen the last video and are sitting on the pile with a motive ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ6Q3gaPclk , one issue people will face when building with locally milled lumber could be local codes , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWgG5pmhdik .
Hobbyman2 Favorite Quote: "If a man does his best, what else is there?"
- General George S. Patton (1885-1945)
Hobbyman2
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by Hobbyman2 »

DLB , In your link it says ,, Sales Price
The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2021 was $330,800. The average sales price was $397,800. ?
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one thing that is concerning is the cost of the same home only a year ago . 400k for a new home with true unemployment numbers being what they are and what they are projected to be in the near future , its hard to imagine many in the building industry hanging on , the 400k is just for a home not the property , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yINPtaOQ0fY , in the past inflation was a way to project the future financial out look of the country .
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RFGuy
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by RFGuy »

That CENSUS data is interesting, but is there a summary document that explains it? Reason that I ask is it makes no sense to me. IF those are new housing starts, then why is there a 30% drop between Feb->Mar 2021 in the West where it is the opposite in the rest of the country? West should always be growing so a 30% drop is suspect to me. I have only watched 2-3 YouTube videos that attempt to explain the spike in lumber prices, but honestly it doesn't make a lot of sense. First of all, there are regional variations around the country so sometimes these videos only explain a small portion of the market for a particular region, but it may not apply where you live. Before the pandemic even started, I believe at that time lumber prices had already started spiking about 30-40% above nominal back then, so prices were already on a tear before any perceived increased pandemic demand. I have heard mention that sawmills went offline during the pandemic but haven't seen any concrete evidence of this. I am sure 1 or 2 shut down in very specific regions of the country during the outset of the pandemic, but many industries continued to crank out product and a sawmill should be a fairly easy place to maintain social distance and keep working (IMHO). The argument is that they shut down in order to manage supply because of a perception that demand would drop during the pandemic, but was this really the case? I can understand an increase in housing demand as many employees were forced to work from home throughout the pandemic. This fueled an uptick in housing demand but also an increase in home remodeling, in theory. I say in theory, because I haven't seen anyone present actual data showing this, yet. Also, I have seen speculation that because of the pandemic, more people are doing house projects. My impression is this is purely anecdotal and not based on anything concrete. I mean, sure there might be a few more 2x4's sold, definitely more gardening supplies sold during the pandemic, but how many average homeowners are going to the big box store and buying hardwood, plywood, etc. that have also increased dramatically in price? I've also heard it mentioned that the last president put in place trade tariffs on Canadian lumber, but given the 4x jump in lumber prices then a 24% tariff on Canadian lumber shouldn't it be more absorbable, i.e. meaning their taxed lumber should still help with mitigating supply and keeping prices down. Bottomline is I have seen lots of speculation and complaining online, but very little actual data to explain why we are sitting at a 4x increase in lumber as a commodity right now. I believe in free and fair markets, as well as capitalism, but it seems like something else is at play with this particular commodity right now. IF you believe the WSJ video below then there is lots of supply of timber in the SE United States and will be so for a decade or more, so where exactly is this supply chain broken for bringing lumber to market right now???

https://www.wsj.com/video/how-the-pande ... CBFE6.html
Last edited by RFGuy on Tue May 11, 2021 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
📶RF Guy

Mark V 520 (Bought New '98) | 4" jointer | 6" beltsander | 12" planer | bandsaw | router table | speed reducer | univ. tool rest
Porter Cable 12" Compound Miter Saw | Rikon 8" Low Speed Bench Grinder w/CBN wheels | Jessem Clear-Cut TS™ Stock Guides
Festool (Emerald): DF 500 Q | RO 150 FEQ | OF 1400 EQ | TS 55 REQ | CT 26 E
DC3300 | Shopvac w/ClearVue CV06 Mini Cyclone | JDS AirTech 2000 | Sundstrom PAPR | Dylos DC1100 Pro particulate monitor
Hobbyman2
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Re: Its only money ????

Post by Hobbyman2 »

Those are really good questions and observations , I personally have been out of the transportation sector for too long to actually give you any sort of answer, as to the left coast , I believe most wood from the mills are/ were harvested locally or imported from Canada by train .mostly pine species from what I recall ,very little if any hard wood , I have a sneaky feeling this increase has a small bit to do with the import tax and the poison word " politics " and maybe a few other reasons . The three largest lumber companies in the US are ,
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North America's Top Producers - The Sawmill Database

largest lumber company in the us

West Fraser Timber Co Ltd
Highest production of sawn wood in North America
Companies
Rank Company Production or Capacity [m3/yr]
1 West Fraser Timber Co Ltd
2 Canfor
3 Weyerhaeuser
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I moved freight for Weyerhaeuser several years ago and will say it is a impressive and very large company . I transported paper rolls from Georgia and it is also a huge lumber producing area . Arkansas is / was also a large lumber producer . maybe some one from the left coast can chime in and give us a bit of information on what is going on out there . I recall seeing places along the highway years ago in Montana where they would load timber onto trains and seeing the logging trucks passing through the DOT scale houses . as to the housing industry and the cost ,, its any one's guess as to what will happen . JMO
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