What is going on?

[ryanbp01]

And let's not discount this hurricane season for a rise in prices.
BPR

[curmudgeon]

Some mills have had to curtail production due to COVID, while most construction projects have continued with less impact.

Demand for housing continues to rise.

More people are doing DIY projects projects at home.

And, in the US market, prices are inflated due to tariffs on imports from Canada.

See https://www.enr.com/articles/49861-home ... rice-surge for the National Association of Home Builders' perspective.

[edflorence]

Demand for housing continues to rise.

Lots of good reasons given in this thread for the dramatic price increase in lumber, but from my perspective here in Idaho (which, by percentage increase, is now the fastest growling state in the union...) the demand for housing is the biggest factor. The yards can't keep framing lumber in stock. I built a deck on the back of the house this summer and had to really scrounge to find enough treated 2x8's, and there just aren't any cedar trim boards to be had right now, so the final trimming will have to wait. And from what I am being told at the yards, all the material is going to the home building contractors.

[Ed in Tampa]

Maybe I am being hard headed here as there have been a lot of “sounds good” answers, but none of them explain why there is a “SHORTAGE” when the lumber processing mills have million of tons of unprocessed timber sitting and thousands of tons of processed lumber stacked up in their yards

My buddy estimates there are train load after train load of finished lumber just sitting. To the point they no longer have a place to store it. Why if there is a “shortage”?

Are they holding the lumber to create a shortage? Why? To increase prices? I thought the old prices were producing record profits.

To wreck the economy to effect the election? Why?

[dusty]

Maybe I am being hard headed here as there have been a lot of “sounds good” answers, but none of them explain why there is a “SHORTAGE” when the lumber processing mills have million of tons of unprocessed timber sitting and thousands of tons of processed lumber stacked up in their yards

My buddy estimates there are train load after train load of finished lumber just sitting. To the point they no longer have a place to store it. Why if there is a “shortage”?

Are they holding the lumber to create a shortage? Why? To increase prices? I thought the old prices were producing record profits.

To wreck the economy to effect the election? Why?

Pictures, please. Train loads of finished lumber being withheld from the market????

[Ed in Tampa]

Dusty I have a slight problem. I am in Florida and the mills are in Georgia.
I will check with my buddy but I think his take on it is if you do not believe him... okay! He has his own timber his own saw mill, makes his own lumber, is retired and simply is not concerned about the price of commercial lumber.

[rlkeeney]

Here is your answer:

https://youtu.be/6PsZQqwnjg4

[Hobbyman2]

sort of borders on political ? but in the log term the facts are , folks are getting more on unemployment benefits now than they were working ,so why work ? not to mention a few of the rail terminals have been vandalized to the point nothing is safe to ship ,folks in the shipping industry use to have a saying , you think people want it bad now ? let it set and people will really want it ? around here my prices are still the same as they were years ago , ya cut it take it to the local mill and go get it when its ready ? or call a guy with a portable mill and cut it where it lays , corporate big box stores love the guy who buys lumber one piece at a time , its all about control , stop buying from them and watch how fast things change .

[Ed in Tampa]

Here is your answer:

https://youtu.be/6PsZQqwnjg4

Very interesting but he does not address why some huge lumber mills seem to be sitting on lumber. I think Hobbyman2 may be closer to the answer. MANIPULATION People are playing games, serious games that may effect this country for years to come. What worries me the most is I think there are people that will willingly destroy this country, our economy, our way of life, our freedom to accomplish their agenda.

Sad! Very sad! Lord help our Children, Grandchildren and great grandchildren they are going to be left with this mess.

[davebodner]

Global pandemic on top of already-disrupted international trade on top of tariffs on top of normal boom-and-bust cycles...I don't see the need to invent a conspiracy. The Bass brothers tried to corner the silver market in the 1970s before it blew up in their faces. Cornering the lumber market would be even harder.

As Dusty said, I'd like to see the evidence of product being withheld from the market on a widespread basis. Anecdotes aren't gonna cut it.

Check this out. Looks like we lived through a 2-month boom (or bubble) in lumber prices followed by a bust in the middle of last month. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber