Tom,
For the sake of all Shopsmith owners I hope you are right. I will
gladly accept being wrong if it means Shopsmith employees get to continue to work and another American company gets to continue to produce and all of you can still purchase parts from them and etc. For me, it isn't about me being right, but when something differs so far afield from what I see as the true reality I do choose to call it out and elaborate on what I see (perhaps to educate or to learn for myself and adjust my own perspective). For everyone's sake,
let's hope I am wrong...
woodshopnerdery wrote
Will Nick Cupps be more motivated by profit than the Folkerths? Yes, of course, he has investors to satisfy, and it's a good thing. He will invest in efficiencies in both the supply chain and the manufacturing and assembly floor.
Yes, every business has the primary goal of profit and that is understood. What I am calling into question is the roadmap for the company. Private equity just purchased Shopsmith. Having seen first hand how companies are run after being acquired by private equity and also those who have gone through M&A's I have more direct personal experience than most in this regard. I hope for the best for Shopsmith, but I also understand the new business reality that they have entered because of being acquired by private equity. My analysis is above in a previous post and I don't need to repeat it. I do expect an exit in one form of another by this private equity in a few years when they meet their profit targets or when they don't. :(
woodshopnerdery wrote
I believe he will take an "All Generations" approach in his strategy to connect potential customers to the brand. For 20-somethings that could be supporting their used Mark V. For retirees that will be promoting a new Mark 7. Some of what he tries will fail and some of what he tries will succeed.
Saint Nick actually said the opposite on the interview. 20 somethings weren't even mentioned as a target market. He made a comment along the lines of not being able to get the 30 year olds and indicated his main market growth area would be people his age, i.e. 40-50ish. I am not willing to listen to the entire interview again to get you exact quotes, but I believe these are right. Now, the aspiration may be to sell to all generations, but not what was said IMHO on the call.
woodshopnerdery wrote
Who has $6,000 to spend on a new Shopsmith? Lots of people. Yes, lots don't and thank god there are wonderful Mark V 510/520 machines out there used for very affordable prices. But many people spend $6,000 and much more on yearly vacations, boats, cabins, hunting trips, cars, horses, sports cars, pianos, decks, bathroom remodels, and so on and so on. There is a market, and there is money in the market to support increasing Mark 7 sales multiple times over.
I don't see it. Honestly, I only see one market that perhaps Saint Nick is going after...Baby Boomer retirees who had a family member or some other personal connection with Shopsmith and have the disposable income and interest to purchase one now. Unless he is going to start taking out Superbowl commercials for Shopsmith, I really don't see how he is going to reach the rest of the market. Certainly not increasing Mark 7 sales multiples times over.
woodshopnerdery wrote
Are people still interested in woodworking as a hobby? I believe so. In my opinion, interest in woodworking as a hobby, even at its peak, is not the result of a bygone culture or a lost element of human nature. It was the result of marketing and education campaigns spearheaded by the major tool manufacturers. For example, it's my opinion that Shopsmith commissioned the writing of "Power Tool Woodworking for Everyone" not to sell books, but to sell machines. They did it because Delta and other major manufacturers were doing the same thing. Woodworking businesses can easily drive a new renaissance of hobbyist woodworking through those same tools, education and marketing. Education and Marketing will look different in 2023 as compared to 1955, but it still will work.
Yes, people are still interested in woodworking as a hobby, but they are the ones already doing it to begin with. I conjecture there is more market cannibalization going on (market share swaps between tool manufacturers). IF the TAM isn't growing, then this is all you have, trading market share between manufacturers. I posit that the TAM isn't growing and that Shopsmith will have to steal market share from other tool manufacturers which is why I question the validity of a multiple times sales increase. So, it becomes important to consider at a society level are the number of woodworkers in decline or not? LOTS of anecdotal evidence and discussion of this in the past on this forum that unfortunately supports the idea that woodworking, as a hobby, by a younger generation is in serious decline. We could debate the definition of woodworker vs. maker vs. X all day so let's not go there. I shared up above (link below) how Google searches and YT searches for "woodworking" and even "Shopsmith" have dropped off a cliff and haven't recovered. In the absence of actual market research data this is all that I have to go on. However, there is also the federal government BLS data we can use to try to gleam some insights. According to the BLS, woodworkers (pros - getting paid for it) were approximately 238.9k jobs in 2022 and is expected to decline by 2.7k jobs through 2032. So, it is a small decline, but the number of active professionals engaged in woodworking in the industry is on the decline.
Important to note that actual openings in the field are only to replace attrition, i.e. retirements and those who choose a different occupation and leave the industry. This is important IMHO because woodworking as a hobby at home can also follow from those who do it professionally and need to remodel their own kitchen or want to build their own furniture, etc., etc. So, if the professional woodworker job pool is shrinking, albeit slowly, then there also fewer pros who might take on woodworking at home and want to purchase a Shopsmith.
"Most of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire."
https://forum.shopsmith.com/viewtopic.php?p=311697#p311697
BLS data on woodworkers:
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/woodworkers.htm
All of this discussion begs the question, in 2023 who is a Shopsmith customer and why are they buying? Getting answers on those demographics and the "why?" would be very enlightening IMHO.
