Good Morning Newbies

[JPG]

Grumble Grumble Grumble

I thought the apparent spike between 5/12 and 1/13 was quite impressive until I realized the variable time scale.

After an initial surge the first year, the growth has been a surprising(to me) almost constant doubling approximately every two years. That puts 16k close to on the same curve(y=xsquared/2).(albeit a couple months late)

[dusty]

Grumble Grumble Grumble

I thought the apparent spike between 5/12 and 1/13 was quite impressive until I realized the variable time scale.

After an initial surge the first year, the growth has been a surprising(to me) almost constant doubling approximately every two years. That puts 16k close to on the same curve(y=xsquared/2).(albeit a couple months late)

If I am not mistaken, Ed worked with graphic data on a regular basis while still working for a living and little variable factors like that don't throw him.

I, on the other hand, do not do well interpreting graphic data. I completely missed that and without graphing the data, I am not sure how it effects curve.

[JPG]

Not now sure about that y=xsquared/2,:o but doubling every two years statement is reasonable.

[joedw00]

What can we do to draw these newbies into our discussions. There must be something. They did not join just to read because they can do that without joining.

I forget, do you need to register to view pictures? If so maybe that could be it.

[reible]

Remember I posted a chart.

The chart show the date we reach 1 member, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 7000, 8000, 9000, 10,000, 11,000, 12000, 13000, 14000, 15000, and 16,000 members, and the associated date.

To provide a graph showing grow rate would be a good deal harder for members to do since we don't have good access for collect that data without a GREAT deal of manual effort.

I went back and did a graph of the data by creating a monthly span from the dates shown and then imposing the actual dates between the fixed dates. Still not perfect but with so little data it helps fits the points along the time line better. Too much effort to do this on a day by day axis and with all the missing data it wouldn't get much closer. So while still not strictly linear the scale is now better and can be called a graph.

The other line is the trend based on given data (straight blue).

[ATTACH]20470[/ATTACH]

Ed

[dusty]

What happened in Dec 2012 when the growth rate first began to shoot up?

This chart will be off the page by mid month.

[Cavediver]

I forget, do you need to register to view pictures? If so maybe that could be it.

Nope. I was able to look through the entire restoration thread by mickyd and could see all of the pictures before i registered. That actually surprised me; you usually do have to register before you can see that kind of content.

[Billdit]

Two things ...

1. This spike in membership is problematic statistically. How many new shopsmiths are sold a day? How many restored a day from unusable to ready to be used? A usable one that is sold just changes one user for another, doesn't add to users (except sold by a multiple SS person to a "new to SS" person).

2. Most of the money made on the internet is from advertisers who pay according to activity on the site. There are automated "sign up" generators that have hidden links, etc that get the counts to go up for that site that is associated with the "person" signing up. I'm not explaining this well, but someone very knowledgable in this kind of stuff explained it to me. It is not "spammers" as such, but that name is used some when refering to these operations, alot of which are in Malaisa and are manned by teenagers. Or maybe in Washington, DC and run by all the gov workers that don't have anything to do.

[dusty]

And there are plenty of those..newbies that is.

Just a couple numbers to put it in perspective.

The membership grew, from Jul 1 to Nov1 by a scant total of 587 new members. That's a grand total of 587 in 4 months. Remember that number....587 in 4 months.

Then, in Nov, there was something that spurred interest. The new member count increased in that month alone by 608 (more than the previous four months).

That seemed like a lot until the December crew was counted. December netted a total of 1554 new members.

This seems almost unbelievable but then the January tally came in at 2328 new members.

Then comes February with another surprising number of 2184.

However, March appears to be promising a real bumper crop. Already, in less than 3 days, there has been an increase of 261. At this rate of 100+ a day, it'll top 3000 in March.

On Jul 1 2012, the forum boasted a membership count of approximately 8974. I say approximate because there is a disconnect of some 50 members between the membership number and the actual count. Always has been. Well, maybe not always but for as long as I have been looking.

In the four month period since February 1, the total forum membership has almost doubled. Growing from 9461 (6 years) to today's count of 16395. At the current rate, it will have more than doubled (in just 5 months) by the end of March.

This is either very exciting:):) or somewhat bothersome.:eek:

Sure wish I could see more data than I can.

[Billdit]

The Auto Generators have obviously found an easy mark... and maybe SS thinks the inflated membership makes them look good, so they don't purge the list... just so it does't bog down the forum....